The budget has become populist

The budget of Tk 9.38 trillion presented in the National Parliament for the fiscal year 2026-27 has become public-oriented, in one word. This is the first budget of the current government led by the BNP.

It was anticipated beforehand that this budget would be large and expansionary as a budget of a political government. However, I have no objection to its size. It seems acceptable to me. Efforts have been made to fulfill the people's expectations by making the budget people-centric. There is also a reflection of fulfilling political commitments.

However, the important aspect of the budget is how and to what extent it will be implemented. The question of competence for implementation is certainly there. Another question is where the resources and funds for implementing this budget will come from.

The budget deficit this time is Tk 2.43 trillion, which is 3. 6 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This deficit will be met as usual from internal and external sources. If I focus only on external sources, there is a target to take Tk 1.10 trillion as foreign loans, and Tk 60 billion as possible grants.

My past experience suggests that obtaining such a large amount of loans will be difficult. We must remember that it is becoming increasingly difficult to acquire foreign loans on easy terms. If indeed the availability of funds from external sources decreases, then the government will have to rely more on internal sources to cover the deficit.

A significant portion of the internal sources is the banking sector. There is a target to raise Tk 1.12 trillion from this sector in the coming fiscal year. Additionally, Tk 150 billion is expected to be collected from non-banking sectors, with a major focus on the sale of savings certificates. However, the net sale trend of savings certificates has been negative for quite some time. The target for bank loans is justified, as long as it doesn’t increase further. However, some banks are sitting on treasury bills purchased at 30 to 35 per cent yields.

So where will the funding for budget implementation come from? More loans might have to be taken from the banking sector, which could mean reduced loans for the private sector. The government should keep the private sector’s need for loans in mind. In my opinion, the temptation to spend on non-essential areas should be curbed.

The main issue is the condition of revenue collection. The revenue collection target for the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has been set quite high this time. During my tenure in the caretaker government, we tried to bring some reforms to the NBR but couldn’t succeed. The country's tax-to-GDP ratio is so low that it’s not even worth mentioning.

Nonetheless, with the current growth rate, we cannot advance significantly. Among those who file income tax returns, 60 per cent have zero taxes. This means that the majority have taxable incomes below Tk 350,000. Yet, it’s not that there are few people with taxable incomes in the society; this has been emphasised for many years. The budget has introduced some initiatives for revenue collection this time. There's also a debate here. The government wants taxes, but people ask what services they will receive in return for these taxes. Their logic is not unfounded.

This budget has some novel elements. For instance, there are proposals to remove advance tax (AIT) from many business sectors, which is a good decision. There’s also an announcement to expedite the issuance of business licences or registrations. It seems that the finance minister is focused on investments. It's true that without domestic investment, foreign investments will not come either. Everything will progress if investments increase, but good governance is equally important.

The budget identifies ten priority sectors. Broadly, these could be employment, inflation control, investment, and the education-health sector. The idea of prioritising sectors is positive. However, if progress is not made in these areas, people will be dissatisfied.

The success of the budget will largely depend on effective implementation. To implement the budget, it is essential to gather the necessary resources, ensure proper allocation, conduct effective monitoring, and implement projects on time.

In our country, project implementation often gets delayed, and many initiatives are not timely executed, failing to meet public expectations. I believe that the finance minister will be able to implement the proposed budget effectively.

The question arises as to how corruption will be reduced. Messages need to be sent to all ministries and offices regarding this. There is no alternative to good governance. If institutional good governance had existed, there wouldn't have been so much irregularity and corruption in the last one and a half decades.

If everyone performs their duties with honesty and dedication, corruption is expected to decrease. The development projects worth Tk 3 trillion that have been undertaken should be completed on time. However, maintaining the quality of the projects is equally important.

The upcoming budget is indeed large. Its implementation comes with challenges. But I want to trust that under the leadership of Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, the country's financial sector will recover in the fastest possible time. He has started his journey as finance minister with the 2026-27 fiscal year. We want to see his and Bangladesh's success.